Warming

Part One

To date, many formed their opinions about global warming. Usually, this opinion is formed from the message read / seen / heard in various media.

Typically, the messages about global warming in the media are built on opposition to big tycoons, public policy, the concept of the media with all kinds of conservationists fairy fortune - Galileo and casino and various action groups, environmentalists and climate scientists, as well as representatives of different sects (the official and covert).

The result is a such "mix" of absolutely contradictory facts, conjectures, hypotheses and predictions. In all of this is extremely difficult to understand yourself, especially when considering sketchy. But to do so you can still ...

We are interested in the issue of global warming for more than two years. During this time, has accumulated a sufficiently large knowledge base on this issue. So we decided to "sort through" all the information gathered in order to derive some general judgments about global warming and its consequences.

So, what is global warming?

Global warming is the average temperature rise in the Earth's surface. Cause of global warming is the so-called "greenhouse effect". "Greenhouse effect" arose from the release into the atmosphere of "greenhouse gases" - carbon dioxide, methane, various freon and water vapor.

Creating an atmospheric layer, these gases are excellent pass solar radiation that heats the earth's surface, but the heat which land is allocated, they do not pass back into space. Thus, the heat builds up and the planet warms.

"Greenhouse effect" has long existed. So long ago that was one of the reasons for the emergence of life on the planet. Were it not for this layer of gases in the atmosphere, the average temperature at the surface amounted to about minus 18 degrees Celsius.

The cause of the threat of global warming and consequently of talking about it, is in violation of the control mechanisms of the process of heating and cooling the Earth's surface. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is becoming more and Earth has no way more cool.

In the late '60s, and later in the '80s and '90s were the fierce debate over the existence of global warming. Some said that the temperature increases, others said it was not true, simply statistical measurements always have errors, especially in backward countries like the USSR and later Russia, where after the restructuring of Arctic weather stations decreased significantly due to funding cuts. Like, there's usually the lowest temperatures, but now there is no longer measured. Hence the apparent warming.

It is now reliably established that the average air temperature near the ground is really growing in almost all regions of the world. In this regard, the atmosphere is changing the global processes of heat and moisture transfer in all the continents, accompanied by a sharp increasing great world frequency of natural disasters - droughts and floods, typhoons and tornadoes, hail, mudslides and abnormal temperatures in some regions (from the crazy cold weather to the hellish heat)

Therefore, the disputes were conducted on a different plane: Some say that global warming has occurred due to natural causes (solar activity, volcanic activity, astronomical cycles, etc.), which means that this process will be short and no significant impacts will not bring.

As proof of the proponents of this hypothesis, the following information: "For the last two thousand years have seen three periods of warming and cooling of the three periods, the last of which ended in the first half of the XIX century. In the second half of the XIX century the temperature has stabilized at first, but at the end of this century began warming, which by the end of XX century was 0,7-0,8 ° C. Therefore, for a period of warming, cooling occurs, as it was before "

Others believe the cause of global warming, human activity. And we tend to assume their correct position. Judge for yourself: have not seen this rate of change in average air temperature - an increase of 0,7-0,8 ° C occurs in nature over thousands of years, and now - over 100 years! The past 15 years have added weight to this argument - the changes in average temperature took place even greater pace - 0,3-0,4 ° C only for 15 years! Natural factors can not be so quick "warm" atmosphere.

Thus, we can make the first conclusion: the current global warming, with probability more than 90% - the handiwork of a person, not the natural fluctuations in climate. In this connection, the average for the globe air temperature near the ground before the end of the XXI century will increase by 2-4,5 ° C.

The next issue is how exactly will happen to climate change. Then the fun begins. Those who first said that global warming does not exist, and later that his appearance due to natural causes, saying that climate changes will occur gradually, with approximately the same rate (so-called linear model). From the standpoint of human survival in a changing linear model of climate change is the most acceptable (there is time to adapt, to change the economics and all that).

Others say that the changes will be "leaps and bounds" - possible strong qualitative changes in the speed of advancing climate change. This development is catastrophic, connected with it dramatic, rapid changes in the conditions of the environment that we are known as natural disasters. The world economy will be destroyed, the city will fall under the billions of environmental refugees comes chaos.

Again, we tend to trust a second opinion. Explain why.

In January 2005, was published by the UN commission's report "In the face of climate change," which was first unveiled a possible critical indicator of global warming, in the event of which the world will begin to speed up abrupt, irreversible changes. This rise in average global temperature to two degrees Celsius compared to 1750 (the beginning of the Industrial Revolution).

Why, after this mark is no going back, why the climate is not able to return to familiar to us a fortune? The fact that in passing through a critical feature of 2 ° C "wake up" the physical mechanism which (without human intervention) will lead to a sharp increase in the greenhouse effect, ie begin irreversible changes in the state of Earth's atmosphere and the associated climatic disasters. And the speed of these changes will reach an unprecedented scale!

From physics we know that the solubility of gases in water decreases with increasing of its temperature - in the range of 10-20 ° C the solubility of CO2 decreases by 3% for every degree increase in temperature. In the oceans contain a huge mass of carbon dioxide - about 140 trillion. tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere! Thus, when the temperature of ocean water into the atmosphere may have a huge additional amount of CO2, which is many times stronger than emitted by human activity, which is very sharply increase the greenhouse effect, hence the atmospheric temperature will rise even more. And further, this process can not be stopped - for the increase in air temperature followed by further increase in temperature oceans and back into the atmosphere will be thrown a huge amount of carbon dioxide - "Flywheel" process does not stop!

Another physical mechanism associated with an increase in water vapor in the air with an increase in its temperature. Water vapor is even more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2. Consequently, when global warming in the atmosphere will increase the usa casinos water vapor content, which dramatically enhance the greenhouse effect, leading to an increase in air temperature.

The third mechanism comes into effect during the melting of permafrost. Due to this process in the vast territories of Siberia and North Canada formed the swamp, one of the metabolic products of which are emissions into the atmosphere ever-increasing volumes of methane, a greenhouse effect which is also much greater than the impact of carbon dioxide. That is, there is another self-replicating mechanism heats the atmosphere.

Thus, there is a person to break the line, how to continue the chain reaction occurs and the climate system will not be able to return to its former state.

It has been estimated: the middle of the XVIII century the average air temperature near the ground has already increased by more than 1.2 degrees Celsius - to point of no return, it remains quite a bit!

In subsequent posts will lay out a model of events, the approximate time periods and the effects of global warming.